Horse racing advice: Canterbury’s best bets and internal mail

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Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones leads the rule on Wednesday’s Canterbury meeting.

The Form: Complete the NSW Racing Thoroughbred Form, including video replays and everything you need to know about each horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

CANTERBURY

BEST BET

Race 5 n°6: THE POACHER

Brad Widdup has placed well here and Hugh Bowman knows this horse quite well given that he is only making his fifth career start. It is going up and it looks like good progress.

NEXT BEST

Race 3 n°5: TWILIGHT AFFAIR

She’s a consistent guy who’s only been beaten by a horse that went Group 1 last start and she won here at her only attempt. Difficult to hold on with Tim Clark. He is in top form.

VALUE BET

Race 1 n°1: NYIKA

Why does this horse have double digit odds? I don’t know and neither does his trainer Anthony Cummings who thinks he can come close to winning.

QUADDY

Race 4: 3, 6, 8

Race 5: 2, 5, 6

Race 6: 1, 3, 6

Race 7: 4, 5, 7

COACH TO WATCH

Brad Widdup only has two horses racing here, Good Omens and The Poacher, but I think he has a good chance of coming away with a winning double.

JOCKEY TO WATCH

Hugh Bowman will like his chances over Silvanito, Rita May, The Poacher and Owen County.

DOMESTIC MAIL: CANTERBURY

RACE 1

Emancipist will probably lead them the 1550m from the inner gate and is in great shape for it so should be there for a long time. Isn’t it Grand might have the kicks to do something here and has the blinders on for the first time and the lead runner is going on now. Ignacio probably lands on the rail and in the box seat, so take every advantage and it will be better for the first race where he kept trying to the line like a typical Waller horse. Nyika didn’t get all the traffic favor in the front straight and should relish the trip here on the quick comeback.

Bet: Victory of Nyika

RACE 2

Surf On Turf just got caught wide last time out and should be able to get past the leader here and have a much better chance with extra fitness and natural improvement second with the hoop . James McDonald has tested Orzala both times this preparation and she has looked at the merchandise and is in a stable that beats above her average even though the trainer is awesome. Silvanito got the breaks last time out but was just beaten by a horse that should end up above par.

Bet: Orzala winner

RACE 3

Twilight Affair probably leads this and will give a nice view and won two races back here and was beaten by a Stakes class horse last time out so expect her to run well in this class. Ruby Kisses gets shot from the door and couldn’t be in better shape for it. Molly Nails is out of this race, which makes things a little easier for the rivals. Rita May is the value hope here with fitness on her side and an X factor.

Bet: Twilight Affair winner

RACE 4

Bastida must be an improver here at number two and is much better suited to this journey now under a trainer who has mastered middle distance and stays. Good Omens should sit in the box here and stay the trip, but is a bog track the problem even if it’s from So You Think? Brown Thomas can get cover off the fence and have every chance as an in-form horse. Sanstoc gained over a mile last time out and it was obvious she wanted more and a wet track shouldn’t matter with breeding.

Bet: Good Omens to win

RACE 5

The poacher resumed with a home win and beat a promising horse in the process so he’s ready to move on to town racing and Hugh Bowman is sticking with him after winning together and if he gets over a clumsy draw he’s the one to beat. Turning gets gate one and might even lead from there third where he will have no excuses as a very fit horse. He should be in there for a long time. Kelvedon Road likes heavy tracks and almost won Albury’s Guineas last prep before running in a Group 3 race and he’s moving up to second well so he’s very well placed here by Todd Smart. Vienna Rain is also an accomplished wet tracker and should be up to speed here.

Bet: The poacher wins

RACE 6

Owen County will enjoy getting up on the trip here and will be better for the new race. He took part in a Group 1 race this winter and ran well. Hugh Bowman is key booking and he should look clear on the straight, so hopefully the fence is where to be on the straight. Quality Time is coming off a second-place finish in the Kenso and he likes to get his foot on the track, but he needs to show up now and get the job done. Akahata comes from Newcastle fresh and more ground, which is what he is looking for and he has already competed in top level races, so there must be a good opinion of him.

Bet: Owen County winner

RACE 7

Depth That Varies stormed home to win after catching ground before the home turn, so it was a strong win and second form is also very good. Fox Fighter is yet to earn a fee, but also hasn’t missed out on a first-place finish and it’s not the toughest race he’s been placed in. Delacour was beaten by Depth That Varies in the last start, but could be better suited to this track with a good draw. A kick into the home turn from the front will make it hard for me to pass and she should handle the track. Jean Dubios is often underestimated and he placed Girl Mania well after she stalked Depth That Varies and Delacour last start.

Bet: Fox Fighter winner

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