Horse Racing Advice: The Best Bets for Newcastle with Shayne O’Cass

0

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and applies the rule on every race for Newcastle.

The Form: Complete the NSW Racing Thoroughbred Form, including video replays and everything you need to know about each horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

NEWCASTLE

BEST BETS

Race 1, n°4: DIACO

A $1.5 million yearling, a close relative of Yes Yes Yes, and looking forward to breaking out at 1500m and above.

NEXT BEST

Race 8, #3: ALL OF ENGLAND

“Nephew” of the great Chautauqua; Tommy Berry on this Snowden trained galloper who is better than provincial grade.

VALUE BET

Race 6, n°7: VERY AMBITIOUS

I had no place or luck in Wyong last time. The bigger track (home) suits him better.

QUADDY

Race 5: 7.8

Race 6: 6.7

Race 7: 2,9,11,14

Race 8: 3.12

DAILY DOUBLE

First leg (7), second leg (3)

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Tommy Berry could book the end of the meeting if his top two rides, Diaco and All England, both show up that day.

THE DOMESTIC MAIL FOR NEWCASTLE

RACE 1

Diaco was the fourth most expensive yearling sold at the Magic Millions in 2021; knocked down for $1.5 million. The colt is by Not A Single Doubt and a fairly close relative of Everest winner, Yes Yes Yes. Unlike this colt trained by Chris Waller, this colt trained by Chris Waller is a miler type and maybe even 2000m. Pretty horse. Gerry Harvey-bred Parsonage Lane, a Redoute’s Choice great-grandson of Lady Jakeo, is tailor-made for 1500m in second on a larger track. Gotta Fly was about three-quarters of a length behind Parsonage Lane in Wyong.

Bet: Diaco to win, exacta 4 to beat 3

RACE 2

Bayezid is nominated for Kembla on Saturday; wherever he goes, it will be the proverbial “long-awaited debut” from him because he has the lot; pedigree, trainer and talent. For the record, Bayezid is a son of I Am Invincible by Ottoman and recent trials have been remarkable. Godolphin stablemate Excursion was $8.50-$6.50 when it debuted in the Max Lees here in November of last year (ranked 6th out of 9). Put the writing on the wall in his trials. Ditto for the gelding Gosford Procrastinator. Dear Jewel is a half divine prophet and Proisir.

Bet: Bayezid to win or scratch, Excursion to win

RACE 3

Propel Motion turned five on Aug. 1 but has only two starts on the resume heading into Thursday; one of them was a narrow but truly impressive first win at Gosford on March 12, the other a distanced but fairly decent third here 19 days later. Well drawn and looks quite untapped. Per Ivy has yet to miss a medal in his four starts. Was beaten at $1.90 first, but it wasn’t all that bad on its own. Zalini ran seven times for one win and three seconds. She seems to favor soft ground and she seems ready to do some ripping tests.

Bet: Propel Motion victory, box first 4: n° 2, 4, 5, 7

RACE 4

Miss Scalini has a benchmark rating of 67, the closest to her here is Onemore Sapphire on 63 and they both carry 57.5kg, just 2.5kg over the limit. It’s the long way of saying that both are pretty well treated here. That said, Miss Scalini ticks a few boxes that Onemore Sapphire may not. Miss Scalini is trained here and always runs well at home. She placed four out of six on the mile and she literally goes on any surface from good to heavy and anything in between. Apart from this pair, we have to consider Microna’s numbers at Newcastle.

Bet: Victory of Miss Scalini

RACE 5

Layla Of Monaco is in her fourth race in the current preparation having run over 1400m first then the next/last two over 1600m. No argument that the pick of the three was his most recent at Kembla. Crucially, the daughter of the Consul of Monaco and a Galileo mare was beaten in the neck on her only race at this track/trip – and was it a Heavy 8 that day. Pharoah’s Reign was $1.55 when she won her 1750m maiden at Muswellbrook. I can’t really vouch for the level of opposition there, but they won easily and could be on their way now so to speak. Global Encounter came back in great shape and could lead?

Bet: Layla Of Monaco wins, exacta 7 to beat 8

RACE 6

Highly Ambitious is from Written Tycoon on the Schillaci Stakes and Gimcrack winner Alpha Miss. The Kris Lees-trained four-year-old finished 8th out of 11 in Wyong’s last start, but was pretty close to a “full pardon”. Her only victory was here and she has a town square in Shades Of Rose. Born in Kiwi, the former Queenslander Tribute King makes his stable debut for the shrewd Paul Shailer stable. Nash Rawiller and this great grandson of Beach Gown tested a treat. Every owner and trainer would want a stable full of Rockbarton Ruby’s.

Bet: Very ambitious to win, Tribute King each way, quinella 6.7, box trifecta 1,6,7,8

RACE 7

Seiryu beat a home horse in his two starts, but one was in the Blue Diamond Prelude, the other was in the Magic Night Stakes. If you like to take horses out of trials, here is your bet of the day. By the way, for pedigree lovers, his fourth mother is Tidal Light. You won’t find many more beautiful horses around the place than Narito; the descendant of Denise’s Joy who has tried as he will in far better races in time. All eyes are on placegetter Golden Gift and Todman. Market intelligence essential for all of this.

Bet: Winner of Seiryu, Narito each way, box First 4. Nos. 2,6,9,11,14

RACE 8

All of England is more or less a ‘nephew’ of the great Chautauqua, which naturally makes Tommy Berry the jockey of choice. Berry has already ridden the son of I Am Invincible twice and those are pretty much the best performances in all of England. Berry also rode him in his trial where he went like a bomb. Princess Amira also accepted for Port Macquarie on Friday. She has thrived since coming to Wyong and the Trial win at Muswellbrook was perfect. Mossman gelding and former Hong Kong resident Diamond Diesel was out of this world impressive at Gosford.

Bet: All England to win

Originally published as Race day focus: paris paris, inside mail for Newcastle

Share.

About Author

Comments are closed.