Ron Dufficy and Ray Thomas are confident Toomuchtobear can continue in his winning form at Kensington on New Years Day.
Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central fitness expert Ron Dufficy discuss the odds of the 10-race program at the New Year’s Day meeting at Randwick in Kensington.
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R8 n ° 1: TOOMUCHTOBEAR
R7 n ° 4: DRAGON STONE
R2 N ° 1: ACTIVATION
THE BEST OF RAY
R8 n ° 1: TOOMUCHTOBEAR
R2 N ° 6: ALWAYS IN FASHION
R1: RANVET HCP (1150m)
Ron Dufficy: Secret Revolution showed a good lap of speed by winning a recent lawsuit against the Wyong. He had an apology when he first started, so I’m happy to be with him. Sibylla impressed me with the way she lay down in her two events indicating that 1100m should be fine. Pantonario drew well and she was placed in the Gimcrack Stake. She had two tries to prepare for this race. London also looked sharp enough to win his case.
Ray Thomas: Pantonario is a talented filly who performed well in her debut finishing third to boom filly Coolangatta in the Gimcrack Stakes. She took a promising form in two recent events and defeated the very intelligent Russian conquest in her last event. Draw the inner barrier and take the capture. Secret Revolution looked very impressive when it won at Wyong. Fireburn was a strong winner from the last start and London made its debut after an impressive victory at the Canterbury Test.
R2: TAB HIGHWAY (1400m)
Duffy: Activation has been tested very well since it stood in the barrier first. Each of his three wins has come this distance and in his best form he could be too good for this lot. It seems to me well above the odds. Banju was very difficult coming down from just second and he is right in this race. Diorissima looks like a mare who really provided this preparation and although full, it was a good first victory. King’s Trust had returned to winning form but needs things to happen right from the draw.
Thomas: Still In Fashion is in great shape after three solid runs at Scone and is set to win. I like her chances here because she runs a solid 1400m and loses 9kg with a slim loss on the last start. King’s Trust is in great shape and has just claimed a victory on the motorway at the last start of 1400m. The avenue for improvement is in its favor. Diorissima has been an impressive first and Majority is chasing a treble of wins after their back-to-back efforts from Tamworth.
R3: HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (2400m)
Duffy: Herman Hesse was beaten by a fit horse at the last start and although he has a lot of weight here he is compensated by the lower class. Born A King gives the impression that 2400m will suit him. Black Queen doesn’t know how to have a bad run and Come Bella Daughter was a bit flat as a battered favorite at the last start but can bounce back with no weight on her back.
Thomas: It’s hard to go against Herman Hesse. He made a match attempt to lead throughout the Christmas Cup but was knocked down by Mightybeel as they took on their rivals. Black Queen has retained her form over an extended campaign and is once again in the top chances. Apache Belle pulls back after her Boxing Day game effort and is a lightweight prospect. Born A King seems suitable over this distance.
R4: MIDWAY HCP (1100m)
Duffy:Race impossible. Nikolhi Beagle won a test recently and is sprinting fresh. I’m happy to take every chance on it. Prince Invincible would be hard to beat if he paced himself a little better. He has a crossed nose today. Henschel needs luck with his large draw but doesn’t look out of place here. Key Largo is talented and is at its peak in third place after two recent second places.
Thomas:I love Key Largo, Ronnie. He has returned to good form this campaign, quickly finishing second in successive starts. He has his chance here. Nikohli Beagle will be hard to beat for all the reasons you mentioned. This horse has very good acceleration so if he gets the breaks he will be at the finish. Prince Invincible is in better shape now and will be hard to crush. Osamu was not beaten far first in a solid race.
R5: THE HCP REAL ESTATE AGENCY (1100m)
Duffy:A bit of guesswork here with Célestine. She’s over a long time with a change of coach, but she has some superior form lines if so. Salina Dreaming has had two sweet tries and is very talented. Irish Angel will be delighted to return to 1100m here and Forzanini was not wrong about this preparation.
Thomas:Forzanini has shown admirable determination to win both starts this campaign. She took advantage of an indoor race to score in Canterbury on the last start and she is a winner at that course and distance. Irish Angel is running in great shape and will finish quickly. Salina Dreaming and Celestine resume but both are able to have a very competitive race.
R6: MILLE MAROUBRA (1550m)
Duffy:It’s a very balanced field, Ray. I want to give Bottega another chance. He was given way too much to do when he got a mile back first. I hope he can settle down closer here and run better. Purple Sector got back on track with a catchy run. Kirwan’s Lane got all the favors last Sunday and is supporting here. He has more tactical speed than most here. Dream Circle is very clear with the claim.
Thomas:The lack of early tempo is a concern, but I am also with Bottega. He is a talented horse when he is right and the climb to 1550m is to his advantage. Kirwan’s Lane finally got a lucky run on Boxing Day and duly scored a brave victory. He is at his peak and will resume racing again. Purple Sector has made a first shield and can only be improved. Dream Circle runs well and is shaping up to be slight luck.
R7: SCHWEPPES HCP (1000m)
Duffy: Dragonstone has just been beaten by a horse in the area on the last start. He has the chance to bounce here thanks to the high speed. De Grawin would probably be the first choice if the trail remains soft. She’s a 1000m specialist who tried well and won on this track. Leo will do a lot better with the inside draw and with a cleaner start. It’s a far cry from Fastconi’s best distance, but he’ll hit the line hard.
Thomas:Dragonstone was brilliant first in Kembla and then was ambushed by Bacchanlia in Randwick. Bacchanalia won at stakes in Gosford’s Guineas midweek to clear form. Dragonstone is expected to have ridden more conservatively early in this race and he can redeem himself. De Grawin has tried really well and she has a good first record. Leo is another who excels at this distance and is worth another chance. Same top four, Ronnie, because Fastconi closes so late.
R8: ACY SECURITIES HCP (1550m)
Duffy: I thought Toomuchtobear was a great first winner in this category. He now has a good record and easily continues his work. Canasta won his only start at this track and at this distance, and he is now very fit, fourth after a spell. Speed Legend held up really well after doing a lot of work on the last start. Because Valor has won three of the four in this campaign and he has good chances again.
Thomas: We’re on the same page again, Ronnie. Toomuchtobear has won four of his last five starts and is pushing through the rankings. He was very impressive in first position and climbed to 1550m. The beat has to be authentic, which will work in Toomuchtobear’s favor. Canasta has been improved by recent races and will take time to run out. Speed Legend runs regularly and For Valor keeps its shape.
R9: PETALUMA HCP (1300m)
Duffy: Snitzonfire impressed on this track three starts back and he enters this last start with solid form lines. I think he deserves another chance on his good draw. Kanazawa has just graduated from first class, but he was very elegant winning from his debut. Construct is a Group 3 placegetter and seems to have a good chance after gaining attention during the pickup. Kir Royale looks like a promising filly headed in the right direction.
Thomas:Kanazawa couldn’t have been more impressive on its debut, accelerating brilliantly to set itself apart from its rivals at Warwick Farm midweek. Granted, this is a big increase in the class, but Kanazawa seems to have a very bright future. Snitzonfire is a young competition horse who makes his own luck in sprint racing. Construction looks set for a good campaign and will take care of the house. Kir Royale shows promise in its first racing campaign.
R10: SHARP EXTENSIVE IT HCP (1300m)
Duffy: I want to trust the Wyong’s form, so the chief lawmaker should improve by then. It is very authentic and the extra distance is fine. Tanker was good in this same race and is up for grabs. Rubamos won the last start with authority and must be considered again. Queen Bellissimo is doing very well and should give a lot of nerve again.
Thomas: Queen Bellissimo is a very authentic mare with an impressive record of five wins in eight starts. She has tactical speed, gets into competition early and finds a lot under pressure. She is very fit and attracted to get the right stroke again. Head Legislator ran very well first in a fit race at Wyong and will be improved. Exotic Ruby is another very consistent mare and she has a good record on this track. The trajectory resumes, but her recent trial victory suggests she is ready for her return.
Originally published under the title Kensington Tips: Best Bets & Analysis by Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy