Met Office forecast for the whole summer says heat waves are ‘more likely’

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The Met Office has released a forecast for the next three months covering the whole of summer and says it is likely to be warmer than normal with a high risk of heat waves. Weather experts say the current above-average sea surface temperatures around the UK, combined with global warming, mean summer could be warmer than average – with less risk than usual d a wash.

The three-month outlook reads: “The forecast varies depending on prevailing conditions, but overall there is an increased likelihood that high pressure will be located near or south of the UK, with winds blowing more frequently from the west Uncertainty in the location of the high pressure leads to a more balanced outlook for precipitation with a slight reduction in the likelihood of a wet summer

“Despite these uncertainties, long-term models are consistent in predicting an increased likelihood that the temperature will be globally above average.

“There is an increased likelihood of warmer than average conditions. Although this does not necessarily mean that heat waves will occur, it does increase the likelihood of heat waves compared to normal. Even with a slight reduced risk of a wet spell, periods of wetter weather are likely to bring occasional heavy showers or thunderstorms.”

But there is a caveat, the outlook adds: “The outlook suggests there is an increased risk of above average temperatures, with possible impacts from heat waves. However, the increased risk of hot conditions could just as well reflect a mix of warm temperatures and cool days, warm nights or less extreme heat levels rather than heatwave conditions in particular.Heat waves generally do not persist for an entire three month period and , therefore, the outlook does not imply continued heat wave conditions.

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