Preview, tips and best bets for Doomben Saturday July 9

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Here’s a race-by-race look at Doomben’s 10-race map on Saturday.

With improving weather conditions, a soft track is possible and with the rail half a yard away, leaders sitting just beside the fence will have an advantage.

Two black-type races plus a solid three-year sprint elevate the meeting above the mundane and big pitches will have me looking for those who can make their own luck.

BEST BET: GARIBALDI (Race 5 No 1)

NEXT BEST: FOR MY ANNIE (Race 1 No 3)

VALUE BET: NIEDORP (Race 8 No 4)

Quaddie:

Race 7: 1,4,7

Race 8: 1,4,7,10

Race 9: 2,3,4,5,7

Race 10: 4.13

120 combinations

Race 1- No Metro wins Handicap 1050m

Lindsay Hatch brings them to town to win and FOR MY ANNIE (3) has won six of her 15 starts. He’s now had three outings since a break and a soft track won’t worry him. This trip suits him, he can make his own luck and Jim Orman makes no mistake.

The soft ground will help DRAGON MISS (5) who hasn’t been dropped in a much better run than this last start and has the speed to get through a wide gate.

BE WATER MY FRIEND (14) can do a lot of harm but has only been narrowly beaten on the rebound and has lived up to that business in the past. He drops 7kg and just has to behave to be at the finish.

ONE SHY RUBY (11) was caught on the last start and will appreciate being on softer ground. This trip is suitable and Luke Tarrant can find shelter.

Verdict- FOR MY ANNIE (3) gets all the favors,

Race 2 – Handicap 2 years old 1350m

Not much form on Saturday here, but the one who ran in much better races is MINKS STAR (6). She does things poorly but a wide gate beat her last outing and she was poorly served off the start before before running strong. With Kyle Wilson-Taylor’s assertion, she’ll get all the first-door favors and the best behavior will be too classy.

The winning form is with HATTUSA (3) who have impressed in their last two outings and were too strong on Saturday at Ipswich. She lifts 3 kg and goes on a trip but has the score on the board.

RED TOP (7) gave the Gold Coast far too much of a start but reached the line when it was all over. He is still a Maiden but can expect a more positive ride with Jim Orman.

FLASHING STEEL (2) will strip down in his first NSW race and may appreciate that extra distance. He was racing in a much stronger company than this in his first preparation and has the chance to present himself here.

DEALING’S DONE (4) mowed them down at the Gold Coast and although it was tougher runs, as if the extra distance was fine.

Verdict- MINKS STAR (6) just has to behave to deal with it.

Race 3 – 3-year-old colts and geldings Handicap 1350m

Matt Dunn retired SUBTERRANEAN (2) due to track degradation last week. He has shown a return to form at Ipswich, the trip is following and he is treated well at 56.5kg in this company. If he returns to his best level, he will be too strong for these.

Turn signals did not work with ALPINE EDGE (1) on last boot and they have been removed. He gives them a lot of weight but ran in a class much higher than this. Travel is a question mark but it has class on its side.

HAMLET VON SNITZEL (6) is an enigma but has shown more docility since joining Rob Heathcote. He had every chance at the last start against SUBTERRANEAN (2) but meets him 2.5kg better and a solid runner in Brodie Loy will help him.

THE KEWESS (9) knows how to get beat and has only shown one last full start. The stage up to 1350m may be fine and if Kyle Wilson-Taylor can get him out of trouble he will reach the line.

Verdict- Am with SUBTERRANEAN (2).

Race 4 – 3 year old fillies Handicap 1350m

Tony Gollan has a good record of improvement from these Southern horses and TILIANAM (2) impressed on his first start for the stable in RHAPSODY ROSE’s (1) last outing. She meets this 1kg filly better and the extra distance should be in her favour. Jim Byrne replaces Hugh Bowman and she can continue.

RHAPSODY ROSE (1) found TILIANAM (2) too good last start and the meeting less well at weight but is undefeated in three outings here and the 1350m will not bother her.

INVINSIBLE TEARS (10) will have benefited from his first run and the extra distance is favorable to him. She has always shown promise to be up to par on Saturday and improves on her second place.

BITCOIN BABY (3) brings Sydney form on Saturday and has the speed to clear a wide gate.

FEARNOUGHT (5) didn’t have much space on the straight and wasn’t far behind on the last start. She continues to improve, the extra distance may be fine and will be rolled well by Georgina Cartwright.

Verdict- TILIANAM (2) can return to victory.

Race 5- Class 6 Plate 1200m

Tony Gollan found the right race for GARIBALDI (1) who is often disappointing but has improved by two outings in a grade well above this one and is well treated in flat conditions. He’ll get all the three-door favors with Jim Orman and there should be no excuses.

Consistency has been the hallmark of THE BIG GOODBYE (3) ever since he arrived in the North and he got the job done in that grade at Ipswich but grew by 4kg. Kyle Wilson-Taylor replaces injured Leah Kilner and the omens will be on her side.

Gollan’s other runner MASS DESTRUCTION (4) will appreciate finding Doomben and Jim Byrne will be able to take advantage of an interior draw.

GOLDSBOROUGH (7) found the fast lane and was too strong at the Sunshine Coast. He’s a talent who’s won four out of eleven, but he’s on the fast rack, up 2kg and has yet to win beyond 1050m.

SAFEWORK (11) chased a good one on recovery and dropped 5kg. He has speed, likes this track and Sean Cormack can overcome the wide gate.

Verdict- Will trust GARIBALDI (1) to deliver.

Race 6- Class 3 Handicap 1200m

Sydney’s form is still hard to ignore at a restricted level in Queensland and DARALINA BELLE (8) has placed herself in her last two outings in best company in Sydney and Melbourne. Matt Smith isn’t taking them north on a whim and as the winner of three of eight starts she’s well placed at just 55kg. She can give them a start but from a good gate, Larry Cassidy draws to do no work and can present her at the right time.

Tony Gollan has been successful with these horses from the Southern stables and PROPER ROGUE (3) showed enough in his trial by beating Annavisto to suggest he is up to the task. He’s had his issues but the tongue tie comes loose and he’s won three of 12 starts. With Jim Orman from the first gate on a soft track, he can make a strong debut in Queensland.

Stablemate SWEET SIXTEEN (13) was never on the track midweek here last start when resumed and has had a try since. It is more difficult but it is better fresh and Jim Byrne can take advantage of a good door.

Chris Munce brought DELYTH (16) slowly, but she showed her potential by winning her last two outings, the most recent in dominant fashion at the Sunshine Coast. It’s harder but she has no weight and she is a strong rider in Mark Du Plessis.

Verdict- DARALINA BELLE (8) has a good enough southern form for this,

Race 7 – Darby McCarthy Three Year Old Stakes 1110m

There was a lot to like about the return of UNCOMMON JAMES (4) a fortnight ago where he paid off the older horses in convincing fashion. He has won three of four starts, returns to his own age group and with Brodie Loy can repeat the dose.

Visors replace turn signals with MISS HIPSTAR (7) who was held up at a critical time at Ipswich and narrowly missed. She has a good record at this track, loses 1kg and with Larry Cassidy staying she could do better.

KALLOS (1) is by far the highest rated horse in this field but has struggled since his Group 2 victory at the last Spring Carnival. His two recent tries have been solid and if they were close to his best they would be to blame.

PUTONTHEREDLIGHT (10) lives up to its name, as every run is a “be on me next time” type effort. Jim Byrne is replacing Willie Pike and he’s sure to be late.

The underrated WHY WE DRINK (6) is better on longer but has been tested well at the Gold Coast and could give returning pilot Michael Cahill a fairy tale comeback.

Verdict – Expect UNCOMMON JAMES (4) to continue.

Race 8- Chief De Beers 1110m

Like a two-figure Tony Gollan runner in NIEDORP (4) who has an exceptional track record on this track with five victories in nine starts including two on this track and this distance. She will be in better shape since her recent outing and mounted with a Georgina Cartwright cover can finish strong.

CENTREFIRE (7) took advantage of an inside draw and held them all away to win the Gai Waterhouse at Ipswich. She drops 2kg, Sam Collett stays and will operate the gun again from gate four.

SNOWZONE (10) has a great track record on this circuit and likes soft ground or worse. She loses 3 kg on her narrow defeat at Randwick, has since tried and will have every chance with Larry Cassidy.

USMANOV (1) gives them all his weight but rarely runs badly and will not mind a soft track. From a good door Jim Orman will give him every chance.

MR MOSAIC (2) disappointed last start at Randwick but was only narrowly beaten at Listed level at Scone on this trip to his previous start. This form is pretty good and he has the speed to get through a wide gate.

Verdict: Will have something both ways on NIEDORP (4).

Race 9- Pam O’Neill Stakes 1600m

Lawrie Mayfield-Smith only has a small stable but CHARMMEBABY (2) proudly flew the flag during Winter Carnival and can add another win here. She blew it at the start of the last outing at Eagle Farm, but was too strong in the Wayne Wilson on this trip on her previous start. Kyle Wilson-Taylor takes over and with a good run near the speed will be hard to hold.

Chris Waller has multiple runners but EASIFAR (5) is in better shape for two outings and won his only previous start at this track and distance. Michael Cahill is on the comeback trail and this is his best chance for a quick result.

DZSENIFER (3) is on quick support after a bold effort in the Glasshouse last week at the Sunshine Coast. She has a good record here and will have a good chance with Taylor Marshall.

Of Waller’s other runners, SELEQUE (7) and SHE’S THE GIFT (4) bring strong recent form to the trip and can’t be dismissed.

Verdict: will remain faithful to CHARMEMEBABY (2).

Race 10- Benchmark 85 Handicap 1350m

Paul Nolan has DON’T STOP (4) set to win after two outings this prep and his last win was this class here ridden by Georgina Cartwright. The stars are aligning again and he will have a hard time holding on.

LOVE SENSATION (13) was not far off when Gai Waterhoue last started and has improved by two outings since joining Tony Gollan. Sam Collett takes the reins and with a more positive drive from the right gate can be at the finish.

NIMBOSTRATUS (10) has been improved by two outings since arriving in Queensland and will get the shot with Brodie Loy.

JACK THE LAD (17) refreshed after four good efforts of this preparation. He is in rank, but with only 52 kg, Mark Du Plessis can make him prevail throughout.

Verdict: DON’T STOP (4) for me.

Originally published as preview, tips and best bets for Doomben Saturday July 9th

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